Methodology in active drafting. Full playbook publishes alongside the open-methodology release in May 2026.
Every wallet AfriFlux maps is classified into one of four tiers. The classification rules determine what gets counted as venue volume and what doesn't.
The four tiers
| Tier | Meaning | Counted? | |---|---|---| | A | Verified custody (multi-source confirmation) | Yes | | B | Inferred operational role (single-source pattern match) | Yes | | C | Pending attribution (candidate, not confirmed) | No | | X | Infrastructure / shared (exchange wallets, bridge contracts, etc.) | No, ever |
Tier A and Tier B count toward venue lifetime volume. Tier C is the queue. Tier X is the trap door — addresses that look like venue activity but are actually shared infrastructure.
Why Tier X = 0
The 10/10 user test: pick 10 random addresses that appear in a venue's deposit graph. If 10 out of 10 trace back to that venue's customer base, the address is Tier A or B. If even one traces to a different venue or a bridge contract, the address is Tier X — infrastructure, not venue-specific.
A naive count includes Tier X. A credible count excludes it. The difference can be 10× the volume.
What's coming
- The full address-classification flowchart
- The five-step attribution playbook (deposit funnel discovery → gas-funder pivot → batcher follow-through → tier classification → same-key cross-chain confirmation)
- A worked example using Busha's BSC stack
- The open-methodology release, for replication by other researchers
"The numbers are only as honest as the exclusions. AfriFlux publishes the exclusions."
Full methodology playbook publishes May 2026 alongside the open-methodology release.